Is it possible to forecast how much the team can deliver without scope and velocity?
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Q: I would like to know is there a way to understand/calculate how much work can be delivered by a target date ( Drop 1), when the scope isn’t fully refined and the team is still new, so the velocity is not stable yet.
Great question.
This challenge is at the heart of early Agile planning.
The Situation
Scope not fully refined: You don’t have a prioritized or sized backlog yet
New team, unstable velocity: You can't rely on historical velocity to forecast delivery
In Scrum, we do not determine scope first and then commit to a date.
We use empiricism to forecast what is most likely deliverable by a date, continuously updating that forecast as we learn more.
Now… because (in your case) both scope and velocity are still uncertain, you need a probabilistic forecast rather than a single “X story-points” answer.
What is a probabilistic forecast?
In a probabilistic forecast, we express the future as a range of outcomes. Each of these probable outcomes is an explicit “likelihood.”
For example:
“There is a 70% chance we will finish 50 points and a 90% chance we will finish at least 35 points before the target date.”
You still answer the business question “How much will you deliver by the date?”, but you also state how confident you are.
So to answer your question,
“Can we calculate how much work can be delivered by a target date when the scope and velocity are not defined?”
Yes, we can… probably!